Maruti Suzuki Stocks Up in Intra-day Session Post Announcement of Company’s Agreement with Western Railways

Shares of Maruti Suzuki India Limited today rose over 1% in intra-day session as the company made an announcement last Saturday about an agreement with western railways for transportation of cars and spares between its manufacturing units. And it also announced that as part the agreement, first such train (rake) loaded with 125 Maruti-Suzuki cars in 25 NMG coaches left the Maruti plant in Detroj to Nidvanda in Bengaluru Division of South-Western Railway.

This agreement is expected to benefit the carmaker’s new manufacturing facility near Becharji station in Patan district which produces around 250,000 vehicles per annum which had plans to increase the production capacity in future.This agreement is expected to facilitate possibility for increase in production and fast deployment/delivery of goods in market in near future and this announcement comes shortly after the company beats utility vehicles manufacturer Mahindra & Mahindra by capturing 28.6% market share while later has only 25.2% market share which at one point in the last decade held over 55% market share as per data from a survey conducted by Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers.

MSIL is breaking record with its sale of the latest edition of Swift close to earning the tag of the Indian car that logged 100,000 bookings in the shortest time — just a little over two months — trumping compact sedan stablemate ‘Dzire’, which had touched the milestone in 12-14 weeks. With the company’s product gaining popularity in market and rising demand for its utility  and passenger vehicle in both budget and premium segments and the company’s current agreement with western railways we can expect good and positive numbers in quarterly statements to come.

 

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RCOM Shares On Bull Run Post Update On Exit From Strategic Debt Resolution

Shares of Reliance Communications Ltd today saw over 40% increase in value. This surge was caused after news hit market about RCOM exiting RBI’s Strategic Debt Resolution (SDR) framework. The company announced that its debt would reduce by 25000 crores through funds raised from pre-payment of debt and transfer of dot spectrum installments upon sale of spectrum , towers , fibers and other major assets such as high value real estate located in New Delhi, Chennai, Mumbai, Kolkatta, Jigni & Tirupathi. Final biding bids from lenders are to be closed in transactions of phased manner from January to March 2018 post which the total debt of company would be valued at around 6000 crores.

This deal when complete will account for reduction of over 85% of total debt and liabilities of the company, and this is viewed as largest ever transaction of its kind in history of Corporate India and this plan according to company was achieved in record 40 working days from when plan was presented to lenders. The stock closed at Rs.23 seeing 41.10% increase in value at NSE. Expected support and resistance for the week are at 30 and 18 respectively.

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Indian Bank Stock Gains Over 7% On Continuous Uptrend Rally Post Q2 Financial Results Update

Indian Bank stocks have been on bull run since 06.11.17 post update on Q2 financial results. The stock today saw a spike in value of over 7% in both BSE and NSE. The update released on Monday mentioned that Q2  net profits were up by nearly 11.45% with 451.54 crore INR. Net interest income (interest income less interest expenditure) surged by 21% to Rs 1,544 crore from Rs 1,278 crore in a year ago quarter.

The asset quality of the bank improved during the reporting quarter with the gross non-performing assets (NPA’s) coming down to 6.67% of the gross advances in Q2 FY18, as against 7.28% in Q2 FY17. Net NPA’s of bad loans too fell to 3.41% of the net advances at the end of second quarter this fiscal, from 4.62% in the year-ago corresponding period. Kishor Kharat  CEO of Indian Bank said “It is the first time NPA’s have come down below 4 per cent for the bank. We want to bring it down to 3 per cent next year.”

Indian Bank stock is trading at its all-time high level & has rallied 49% from Rs 270, after the government announced the Rs 2.11 lakh crore recapitalization plan for public sector banks (PSBs). The bank stock has recently seen an increase in buy sentiment in market post management change. This could be due to various factors such as management’s approach towards its stressed assets and mode of operation focused on increasing revenue with less liability.

Some major improvements made by Indian bank so far are identification of  stressed assets and control gross NPA’s and restructured assets below 10 per cent to meet their goal of taking NPA’s below 3% within next one year. This is successful would result in sharp moderation in credit cost in financial quarters that come ahead. Also strong revival in loan growth along with improvement in Net Interest Margin and other income suggests continued improvement in operating profit which indicates better margin on stock value.

Indian bank is on path to stable and steady uptrend movement in stock market as PSU Recap plan hits market. With the increase in banks business growth at current rate market recapitalization is expected to provide a huge boost. Investors are cautiously watching the growth of bank as market moves forward with increase in buy sentiment has been pushing stock uptrend, support and resistance for stock in long run as stock heads towards next two quarters are at 255 and 480 respectively.

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Divi’s Lab Stock Snapshots On Update Of US-FDA Lifting Import Alert At Company’s Unit In Visakhapatnam

The stocks of Divi’s Lab has been on bull run for last three trading sessions, however the stock snapshot today early in the morning trading session on news’s of US-FDA Lifting Import Alert At Company’s Unit In Visakhapatnam. The stock value in NSE rose upto 21% before slowing down and it currently trading with 15.78% increase in value. The company received import alert 66-40 ban on 20.03.2017 on concerns over Current Goods Manufacturing Practice regulations enforcement at  Company’s manufacturing Unit-II In Visakhapatnam.

While this reduce the quarterly earning of company for Q1-2017/18, the company has managed to address the concerns and resolve them post which US-FDA has agreed to lift the import ban. Also adding to stock value rise is the fact that the company has managed to increase its revenue for Q2 when compared to Q1 along with addressing FDA’s concerns. Now that the import ban has been lifted the stock value is expected to continue its bull run and revenue of the company is also expected to increase in the next two financial quarters which has increased the buy sentiment for stock.

The stock reached as high as 1117.60 in NSE and 1117.00 in BSE today and is currently trading at 1071 in NSE and 1072.90 in BSE. When comparing to stocks lowest value in month of March’17 on 22.03.17 at 612.71 the current stock value has nearly doubled. The stock had maintained a range bound performance across the month of October’17 from 830 to 899. This uptrend movement started on 31.10.2017 post which the stock value has been on steady uptrend movement.

When looking at candle chart with Bollinger Band, Moving Average and Parabolic SAR indicators we can see the stock still had signs of further growth in days ahead with no immediate signs of correction or breakout in upper region. Based on candle movement and previous breakout positions, early resistance is visible at 1150.04, post which if the uptrend momentum continues the stock is expected to chase its 52 week high of 1381.60 in NSE and immediate support is expected at 836.00.

Source : Economic Times Website – NSE data

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Manaksia Steel On Bull Momentum Post Update Of AGM Minutes

Manaksia Steel Ltd stocks have been making bull run in both NSE & BSE for more than a month now. This bull momentum started during early September 2017 after update was released on date for Annual General Meeting. The company saw a flurry of update since then which includes compliance certificate for half year ended on 30.09.2017 , Outcome of AGM , Scrutinizer’s Report with update on typographic error regarding hard copy format containing voting results of AGM and finally AGM minutes.

The financial details announced during AGM included details of audited annual financial records, overall profit (INR 334 crores compared to previous years INR 289 crores) and net profit which is nearly double when compared to last previous financial year ( Net profit of 8.98 crores compared to 4.98 crores the previous year ). The meeting also announced various other resolution for queries and complaints addressed during period of reference (Financial Year Ended on 31.03.2017) etc…

The boost in uptrend momentum which initiated during early September stayed in a range bound limit of 28.332 to 34.936 after crossing its all time high since 7-Apr-2015 at value of 29.999 on 31.08.2017  resulting from updates of schedule for AGM announced in newspaper and was further supported by updates such as outcome of AGM , voting results etc..( based on candle chart of stock movement in BSE )

The stock recently broke its resistance and moved up the candle chart on steep uptrend climb after update was released on 21.10.2017 on AGM minutes with financial updates and query resolutions scaling new all time highs for last 3 business days. This trend is continuing today as well with stock value in NSE and BSE currently at 49.90 & 49.60 seeing a 9.91% & 9.98% increase in value respectively.

Looking at the stock performance in technical chart, the candle continues to climb uphill as multiple indicators including MACD, Parabolic SAR, Moving Average and Linear Regression Forecast indicator show signs of further growth in stock value and no signs of bearish breakout of course correction are visible in any indicators yet. Market sentiment for stock remains bullish with huge increase in buy call among short term investors.  The support and resistance for stock value in both BSE & NSE are expected at 30 & 50.167 respectively..

Source : Moneycontrol.com

 

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Market Under Correction As Nifty & Sensex Reaches New High

Indian Market today has a bearish start for trading session on global cues. Adding influence to bearish start profit booking puts Nifty and Sensex on course correction path in their index chart. Both Nifty and Sensex could be viewed to have a near flat stand point across morning session as traders cautiously await for next volatile market swing that could give market its push going forward.

As mentioned in yesterday’s post this week is going to see a lot of influential news updates that are going to create a volatile market and this takes market on two different course :

  1. Traders skimming of profits on every volatile swing with short term trades.
  2. Traders choosing to hold position on long run awaiting till the market hits peak , then skimming profits.

These first course of action will influence market on short run / intra day basis across the week, similar to market’s momentum today morning. While influence from global market taking a bearish hit on Monday put major Asian indices on bearish path , Singapore market has managed to maintain its bullish momentum and adding to this influence nifty futures in Singapore exchange hit 10403 before taking course corrections. Sensex has remained near flat albeit on uptrend movement indicating markets neutral momentum for morning half of the day’s trading session.

While Nifty is currently in the red, it is currently trading at 10362.10 with 0.01% decrease in value indicating that there hasn’t been any major change in uptrend momentum that has been driving Indian market recently. Going forward today and into this week, major Indian stocks and Nifty & Sensex are expected to make further uptrend movement on earnings report (bulls that are currently pulling the market) expected this week have bullish expectations.

As long as nifty holds above 10300 we can expect the uptrend momentum to be intact, expected support and resistance for the day are at 10300 and 10400 respectively.

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Indian Market Reaches New All Time High’s Within Early Hour Of Trading Sessiion

Indian Market saw huge uptrend movement across last week closing above 10300’s level of friday. Nifty futures in international market has been trading well above 10380’s to max of 10418 level since market opened for the day across time zone early today morning. Nifty & Sensex breached their three month resistance levels and soared into new heights last week establishing new level of support and gaining consolidation on uptrend momentum as bulls lead the market.

Nifty and Sensex opened for the day at 10353.85 and 33260.10 indicating signs of bullish growth as market proceeds further this week. Both Nifty and Sensex reached new all time high’s within first 30 minutes of trading session today at 10372.25 & 33315.23 respectively. Market is expected to see growth as results of quarter which ended on September 30, 2017 and half yearly financial updates for companies are released across next 30 business days (31.10.2017 to 11.12.2017) and further growth spurt to market being added as holiday season sales and market shapes the market near year end in next 10 business days (12.12.2017 to 26.12.2017).

Nifty futures in NSE for next three expiry’s have reached levels of 10396.80 for 30.11.17 , 10430 for 28.12.17 & 10460 for 25.01.18 respectively indicating growth of Nifty in index chart which is expected to see resistance at max of about 10450 in next 30 to 40 business days. Similarly on viewing the movement of Sensex futures in their next three consecutive expiry we can predict growth in Sensex index chart to see resistance at range of 33480 to 33532 in next 30 to 40 business days.  Expected support and resistance levels for Nifty for the day are at 10300 & 10400 respectively.

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Bharti Infratel Goes On Bull Run As Update Hits Market on Deal Regarding Indus Towers.

Bharti Infratel stocks have been on bull run across the month of October,2017. This bull run was got a boost on 9th October 2017 as update was released regarding board meeting to be held on 30.10.2017 to consider & take on record final , audited (Standalone & Consolidated) Financial results for second quarter which ended on Sept 30, 2017. The company also announced closure of trading window as per code of prevention of insider trading on its securities from 30.09.2017 to 01.11.2017.

The stock movement also took to another bull movement creating new peak in chart on information in news regarding a deal of $5 billion from various investors to help with Bharti Airtel acquiring controlling interest in Indus Towers from current major share holders Vodafone India Pvt Ltd and Idea Cellular Ltd making the group major share holders in Sunil Mittal managed Company (Indus Towers) .  Indus towers is currently one of major telecom infrastructure provider with over 1.2 lakh towers spread across 15 telecom circles and a survey indicates that out of every 5 calls made 3 calls were routed out of Indus towers.

Based on Movement of Candle along PSAR indicator we can expect bull run to continue across the month  with few more occurrence of  stock value reaching new 52 week high along the way. Moving Average indicator has created a stair case based growth pattern across the past business days of October 2017 which is still showing signs of further uptrend movement indicating further growth. The stock hit 52 week high today at 438 and is currently trading at 432 with 5.24% increase in value as the stock moves forward we can see high level of resistance near 450 and 475 before it makes any clear downtrend breakout as long as market sentiment remains positive and support value for stock is expected at 407.51 on first level and 397.43 on second level.

Source : Economic Times Website- NSE data

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Sectoral Watch: Automobile Sector

India’s Automobile sector is the third largest automobile industry in the world. Auto manufacturing has grown at a CAGR of 9.4 percent over the last 10 years and Automobile exports have grown at a CAGR of 4.3 percent between FY 12-17. The BSE Auto index has grown almost by over 150 percent in the past 5 years and is currently at 24000 levels.

Over the last couple of years, the industry went through a lot of policy and structural change and entry of new commercial and passenger vehicle global auto companies.

The impact of GST in the automobile sector has been positive and there was a decrease in prices across products segments from the base model to top variants. And ban on the sale of polluting BS III vehicle have also impacted the industry. Shares of Maruti Suzuki, Bajaj Auto, Hero Moto Corp, Ashok Leyland have been on the bullish trend. India’s biggest passenger vehicle manufacturers Maruti Suzuki’s stock has increased by 50 percent in the current year and is currently trading at Rs 7813.

Charts Credit: Google Finance

Sector Outlook in the Next Ten Years

India is one of the fastest growing developing economies in the world. Growth in manufacturing space under Make in India campaign is witnessing a growth in scale and adoption in innovation in the sector.

  • Exports are estimated to grow at a CAGR of 3.05 per cent during 2016-2026
  • Two-wheeler manufacturing estimated to grow at 16 per cent CAGR between FY17-20
  • Domestic sales of passenger vehicles estimated to increase at a CAGR of 12.87 percent between 2017-26

 

 

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Q1 GDP on August 31st

The market is looking for a trigger to make any decisive move. For the last three to four trading sessions, Nifty is moving rapidly between the 9700-9900 range. The markets have factored in all the corporate earning data and good monsoon data on the base of which Nifty has surged 10K mark.

The next trigger for the market will be the Q1 GDP data of FY18 which is getting released on August 31st. In the first quarter of FY17, the GDP was 7.9 percent and for the 2016-17 full year, it was 7.1 percent.

The Q1 GDP data will be affected by the run through of GST implementation. The effect of GST implementation was felt from the June month, where the manufacturing had to be slowed down because of slow offtake. Market experts are eyeing a GDP of 6.5-6.6 percent for the Q1 FY18.

The GDP data further will be based on by RBI for monetary policy formulation. Lower GDP data will pressure both RBI and government shore up the consumption story.

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MotherSon Sumi (MSSL) Fundamental Report

Motherson Sumi (MSSL) is a joint venture between Samvardhana Motherson and Sumitomo wiring system (Japan) for technical agreement in the manufacturing of wiring harness in 1983. From there it has come a long way to become India’s most valued global brand. The company is a world leader in Automotive Solution provider to top auto brands in the world including BMW, Volvo, Mercedes, TATA, JLR etc. With a total turnover of $7.2 billion in 2015-16, presence in 26 countries and 200 operational facilities, it creates value for both its customers and stakeholders.

Business portfolio of the company includes manufacturing of Wiring Harness, Rearview Mirror, Polymer Processing & Tool Manufacturing, Elastomer Processing, Modules, IT engineering & design, Metal working, Manufacturing support. Globally MSSL is the largest manufacturers of automotive rearview mirrors for passenger cars and
largest manufacturer of IP modules, door trims and bumper in Europe. MSSL is a diversified manufacturer of automotive components with a market leading position in its major product verticals. MSSL is one of the largest manufacturers of rearview mirrors for passenger cars in the world as well as India’s largest manufacturer of automotive wiring harnesses and mirrors for passenger cars. It is also one of the largest manufacturers of IP modules, door trims, and bumpers of European Automotive giant and a leading supplier of plastic components and
modules to the global automotive industry.

Investment Rationale

The industry outlook for the global automotive industry is positive. Stable crude price, low-interest rate, and new products are driving the sales of vehicles. MSSL is well positioned in the global market to ride the growth. From a single product in 1983 to a well-diversified global organization the company’s maximum share of revenue comes from outside India was at 85%. For the FY 16, total revenue increased by 10% to Rs. 38716 crore and is growing at 36% CAGR in last 5 yrs. EBITDA margin increased by 17% to Rs. 3746 crore. The company has incurred capex of Rs 20238 million in expanding its footprint and enhance capacities. The company’s strong R&D facility has more than 500 patents registered.

Growth Strategy

The company has focused on three pillars of growth i.e. Organic growth, Growth through JV, Inorganic growth (18 acquisition). This has helped to diversify the company in the different segments. For the 2020 growth plan, the company’s focus is on 3CX15 meaning No country, customer or component should be more than 15% of total turnover, 40% ROCE and consolidated $26 billion revenue. The 3CX15 will help to ensure proper risk management, thus decreasing the chance of affecting the business performance.

Share Performance

The stock has performed consistently and has given above-average returns to investors. Since inception, the price of the stock has increased to 2423 times meaning an investment of Rs. 2500 in IPO will be worth Rs 6058637 including dividends as on 30th Jan 2017 and in the past and 5yr, it has given 600% return. The stock is trading at Face Value of Rs.1 with P/E of 32.03, EPS of Rs 10.32 and P/B ratio is 16.40. The stock is trading at Rs 330/ share. Below is the 5 years chart of MSSL, Nifty50 and Maruti Suzuki.

Charts: Moneycontrol

 

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The Auto Component Market in India

The Indian Auto component market is one of the biggest markets in the world. The industry has clocked $66 billion in turnover in 2015-16 and is slated to rise to $115 billion till 2020. The industry is divided into the organized and unorganized sector. The organized sector mostly caters to the Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) & export market and unorganized focus on after sales market. According to a report published by IBEF, there is a huge gap between the organized and unorganized players. In FY15, no. of players in organized sector is 700 and unorganized sector is 10000. The opportunity is huge in the market.

The sector has attracted a total FDI of $16 billion in the period April 2000 – September 2016. According to the Automotive Component Manufacturers Association of India (ACMA), the Indian auto-components industry is expected to register a turnover of US$ 100 billion by 2020 backed by strong exports ranging between US$ 80- US$ 100 billion by 2026, from the current US$ 11.2 billion.

Post GST effect

The post GST period the sector will able to grow at much faster pace. An unorganized player getting into the organized structure will help the sector to grow and have healthy competition. The recent price cut by OEMs will help to increase the demand in the automobile sector and incentives under Make in India programme will help the sector to grow manifold.

Some of the big companies engaged in the Industry has grown manifold over the years.

Motherson Sumi (MSSL): The Gurgaon based company is involved in the manufacturing of high-end plastic component and mirrors for leading automobile companies globally including BMW, Merc etc. The company recorded a turnover of $7.2 billion in 2015-16. The company is growing at a rate of 36% CAGR in last 5 yrs.

Exide Industries: The home grown battery manufacturer is also the biggest player in the auto component market. The company has a turnover of Rs 11,224 and a net profit of Rs 801 crore.

Amara Raja Batteries: The company is the biggest provider of batteries in the automotive and industrial sector. The company has reported turnover of Rs 5,317 crore and a net profit of Rs 478 crores. The company exports its product to Singapore, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam, Taiwan, Philippines, Tanzania and South Africa, among others.

Ucal Fuels: The company established in 1985 by Carburettors Limited, pioneers In India in the manufacturing of Carburettors and mechanical fuel pumps. The company has the presence in two wheeler auto component market and fuel systems. The company stock has given returns of  more than 100 percent over the last one year

 

 

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Fundamental Analysis: Tata Motors

Tata Motors, set up in 1945 has over time become a global player in the Automotive sector. The company’s presence in Luxury (JLR), Passenger and Commercial vehicle segment makes it a unique company in the world. The company has a total market cap of Rs 155,190.38 crore and one of the blue-chip company in India.

The company has made total sales of Rs. 2,77,705.01 crore with net profit of Rs. 6063.56 crore in the FY 17. Over the last few years, the profitability of the company was supported by the good performance of JLR. This was a concern amongst shareholder as the domestic business was not able to perform and sales were falling due to lack of fresh product line up. The domestic business suffered a loss of Rs 2480 crore.

The effect on the profitability of domestic unit can be seen in stock prices also. The stock gave a negative return of 9 percent during the year against positive returns of Nifty 50 and Maruti Suzuki of 15 percent and 65 percent. The stock has been an underperformer in the sector.

New launches in the last couple of month have been very successful. The launch of hatchback Tiago, Sedan Tigor and UV Hexa has received a good response in terms of sale. Tiago has received over one lakh booking after the launch. The company is also planning to launch the sub compact SUV Nexon before the festival season begins. Reduction in prices of products after GST has also a positive impact on the company. The increase in demand for commercial vehicles (CV) post-GST and replacement of old CV due to tighter emission norms will also have a positive impact on the company.

Improved fundamentals and change in management structure for greater efficiency will be reflected in the price of stocks over a couple of months. The stock has not participated in the recent rally in the stock market. The stock is trading currently trading at Rs  450 level and also near to 52 week low of Rs. 417.25. In my views, from here Tata motors counter should perform positively and with a target of Rs 550 with time frame of 6 months.

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The NPA Mess in Indian Banks

The deteriorating asset quality in public sector banks is a reason for concern. Defaults by large borrowers are multiplying the NPA mess. According to a report published by CRISIL, “Indian banks may have to take a haircut worth Rs 2.4 lakh crore to settle 50 large stressed-assets, which form over half of the country’s total Non-Performing Asset (NPA)”.  The report further said that large part of the NPAs belong to construction, power and metals sector for which banks need to take 60% cut in Rs 4.3 lakh crore debt to land at a sustainable level of debt.

The large part of the NPA is coming out from small public sector banks leaving the banking sector in stress. Gross NPA of public sector banks like Indian Overseas Bank (22.39 %), IDBI (21.25%), Central Bank (17..81%), Dena Bank (16.73%), Oreintal Bank (13.73%) which are too high than private sector banks which are now at 2.73% of the total lending.

The sector is going through a lot of stress due to lack of credit offtake, defaults by borrower despite low-interest rate regime. In long term, failure to adhere to BASEL guideline on Capital Adequacy Ration (CAR) of 11.25% which is kicks in from March 2019 will leave banks more vulnerable to financial collapse. The sector needs a cleanup and strong Bad loan resolution from government and RBI.

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HUL Q1 earning result and FMCG sector outlook

HUL reported its first quarter result for fiscal 2018. The company reported 9% growth in net profit to Rs 1283 crore on sales of Rs 9,904 crore which rose by 5% on a year-on-year basis. There was a slowdown in volume pick up in the month of June due to the uncertainty of GST rates affected the positive growth. The company is working on priority to get back the distribution channels to normalcy.

The whole FMCG pack is under pressure due to the disruption caused by GST and entry of new competitor Patanjali. The slowdown in volumes in the pre-GST period and traders finding difficulty in dealing with new tax system under GST is affecting the volume pickup. ITC cracked 12.6 percent yesterday on a single largest fall in 2017 on GST Council’s decision on additional cess on cigarettes. ITC has been the biggest driver for the rally in Sensex in 2017 contributing 21 percent to it.

These short term blip will not have any major effect on the sector. GST will have a positive outcome for the sector bringing in more transparency and reduction in prices. The sector is poised to grow at CAGR of 14.7 percent to touch $110 billion in the year 2020 in which rural growth is expected at 17.7 percent to reach at $100 billion in the year 2025. Government’s approval in 51% FDI in multi brand retail and 100% FDI in single brand retail will drive the growth in the sector.

 

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Today Market Outlook – 17.07.2017

Indian Stock Market faced vast uptrend last week and closed with a stable uptrend movement. The overall market movement mirrored global market movement due to strong influential external factors and stable local economic factors.

We can expect the market to open with uptrend movement this week and the positive market growth can be expected to continue over the week however the strong influential factors will be controlling market from local news economy as opposed to last weeks international market influencing factors.

Indian Presidential election is up this week with elections taking place today and results scheduled to be announced this week  and a strong lead expected for ruling party candidate , we can expect stable economy and uptrend market movement without much changes in market situation.

We can expect support and resistance value of Nifty 50 at 9880 and 9950

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